After a solid start to the year, private capital deal activity stalled in March, depressed by tariff uncertainty and extremely volatile and downward trending public markets.
The good news? Over the past few weeks, conditions have taken a decidedly positive turn.
Public markets have recovered nearly all of their losses, and cooling inflation and better than expected private-sector job growth are driving hope for a rebound in business and consumer confidence, which in turn could really “unstick” our deal markets.
Then, yesterday, global markets rallied following a 90-day US – China tariff truce, while diplomatic breakthroughs—including easing tensions between India and Pakistan and a potential Ukraine ceasefire—have further boosted hopes for geopolitical stability and economic recovery.
All this good news very possibly gets us back on track for 2025 still being a record deal year for all of us.
So the next few months are shaping up nicely to reopen our key stakeholder conversations with investors / buyers of all types (Private Credit, PE, VC, Family Offices, UHNW, domestic and global, etc.), key referral partners (lawyers, accountants, wealth managers, etc.), and most importantly, with decision-makers at operating companies as to their growth, exit, recapitalization and turnaround plans.
What should we talk to them about? Well, in addition to the current deal and market optimism, I always recommend the evergreen idea that operators should always be testing the market as to the “street’s” opinion on their business’s value and prospects.
The worst that might result is thoughtful, informed feedback that the business – in its current state – is unsellable, unfinanceable, or simply lacking the leadership to get to the next level.
And, that very likely they might be pleasantly surprised as to what comes back regarding their deal prospects, as from our historical GTS platform data, more than half of all spun up mandates result in some kind of offer or indication of interest.
So, let’s not overthink it! Our business, at its essence, is about pitching mandates, working mandates, and closing mandates.
Rinse and repeat.
This ties into what I see over and over again as to what separates the bankers that make a lot of money on our platform from those that don’t.
It isn’t resume, education or network. Or technology. Or deal sharing. Though of course all of these things are important.
Rather, it is entrepreneurial resilience and self-sufficiency aka a tough, hardened mindset that says I am 100% responsible for the success of my practice.
Or in another way of saying it being a banker of purpose, courage, faith, and action.
In this vein I will end with a final thought inspired by my 17-year-old son, Teddy, an accomplished junior golfer who his proud father can share has recently recorded tournament rounds of 65, 67, and 68.
Wise beyond his years, Teddy says he doesn’t judge his success by the final score, but rather by how many little wins he stacks up throughout a round: a drive in the fairway, an iron on the green, a putt made, a clutch up-and-down.
By focusing on those small wins, he naturally gets more of them—and they add up to big wins at the end of the day.
Independent banking is exactly like that.
The call made. The appointment kept. The relationship deepened. The idea shared.
As we focus on and stack up more of these small wins every day, the big wins—closed deals and big paydays—will inevitably follow.
We have some market tailwinds right now. Let’s ride them and start stacking up more small and big wins between between now and summer, and beyond.