YTD deal markets have been a mixed bag at best.
While middle market fundamentals are very good – a ton of PE dry powder on the sidelines, pent-up demand from companies looking to sell businesses / funds looking to raise capital – but a “crisis” narrative around tariffs, geopolitics, interest rates, inflation, and more has caught dealmakers in a cycle of “wait and see.”
But here in mid-July 2025, it finally feels that buyers and sellers alike have adjusted to this latest “new normal” and are refocused on their “micros” and on just getting deals done.
PitchBook is tracking this sentiment change, prognosticating a 20% increase in U.S. middle‑market M&A in H2. Axial reported that buyer engagement last month reached its highest level since Q1 2022, highlighting renewed confidence and demand from acquirers.
This is also borne out by GTS platform data, with more mandates spun up on the platform in June than in any month since January.
So, yes, let’s all enjoy some summer vacation time for sure, but also reset, plan & commit to a BIG H2 2025.
Here are three ideas how:
1. Reset The Narrative. For better or worse, both buyers and sellers follow the headlines. Our job now as bankers is to give them new ones.
Via sharing that buyers are back, valuations are normalizing, and money is moving.
A GTS banker did just this and landed a $30M+ M&A mandate from a client who had given a verbal go-ahead back in March but then hit pause amid all the market noise.
He then shared fresh, specific conversations about renewed buyers’ interest and gave the well-timed kick in the pants to the client to get on with it.
And they did.
2. Build Around the Buyside. More than at any time since January, investors and buyers are reaching out and hunting for bankers who can deliver proprietary, off-market opportunities.
Bankers like us.
So, between now and Labor Day, let’s all reconnect with our Top Ten buy-side & capital relationships. Ask them what they are looking for and bring it to them.
3. Communicate Re-Pricing. Our business is vexingly filled with deals that nearly happen but stall out, very often due to a disconnect between buyer and seller expectations on pricing and value.
To break through this, let’s emphasize to our networks the timely and evergreen point that market-clearing prices and deal structures are not just possible but inevitable.
So let’s advise our business sellers and capital seekers to keep it simple – just initiate a process and see what comes back.
There is never an obligation to transact, there’s always value in testing the market, and very often surprising, solid, and doable deal offers do come through.
Our deal business will never be easy, but H2 2025 is promising to be better.
Let’s all lean in and make it so!